Johnson is sure he would win an election. A closer look at the polls says otherwise | Ell Smith

Even a very small change in the numbers will make it impossible for the Conservatives to win a majority

In October 1924, British voters went to the polls. It was an unstable time: over the previous two years, as one inconclusive election followed another, the country had got through three prime ministers. This time, however, the result was decisive: Stanley Baldwin won the biggest Conservative landslide in British history. The story will no doubt provide comfort to Boris Johnson as he seeks to win his own snap election. But a Conservative majority in 2019 is by no means guaranteed; Johnson faces many more obstacles than Baldwin.

Many observers have focused on the Lib Dems’ impact on the Labour vote. That’s a mistake

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