Posts Tagged ‘Tories’

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – 15th January 2019

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – 15th January 2019

(The Burning of the Houses of Lords and Commons October 1834, by Turner)

Well, D-Day has arrived. The papers are full of last-minute articles by MPs and journalists about why or why not Ms May’s deal should or should not be voted down. Theres’ nothing new there though – we’ve heard it all before.

The one item this morning which agitates the journalists and of course ourselves is how the cookie will crumble, what the votes will finally look like. It is speculation at the highest level. One argument emerges across the Leave-Remain board: if the defeat for Ms May is by over 100 votes, Corbyn will demand a vote of no confidence immediately, and an ensuing GE. Some sources in May’s Cabinet suggested yesterday (here) that she will have to step down if the defeat is too big, so Labour is doing their best to make it so (here).

One fact we can be certain of is that all ten MPs of the DUP will vote against May’s WA. Watch the clip of Nigel Dodds DUP in yesterday’s debate here, and enjoy the comments. More on all of that later – first some ‘bombshells’, one of which will make your blood pressure shoot up.

Yesterday there was a vote in the HoL on May’s WA. The result can be found on the Parliament site here where you can find the esoteric question and the names of who voted for what. So the HoL, Remainers nearly all of them, reject Ms May’s ‘deal’ and the WTO Deal … and only about 50% turned up to vote. Well, it was a non-binding vote, so why bother … but: this vote got a headline in a German conservative paper, together with a true ‘bombshell’:

“Oberhaus lehnt EU-Deal ab, Merkel soll May helfen wollen” (HoL rejects EU-Deal, Merkel allegedly want to help May). The Express reports it thus:

“If Mrs May’s vote is shot down allies have claimed German Chancellor Angela Merkel has alluded that further concessions could come forth with new reassurances coming from the EU on sticking points such as the so-called Irish backstop. A senior Government figure said Mrs May and Mrs Merkel had a “very positive” phone call on Sunday morning. The source said: “Merkel believes there is more the EU can do once the vote is over as no deal would be a disaster for everyone, and they agreed to talk after it.”(my bold)

Let that sink in!

How exactly Ms Merkel, now a Lame Duck, proposes to ‘help’ Ms May will tell us much about the EU, because they are on record saying that the WA Deal is brilliant, giving them almost all they, the EU, wanted – see here – with remarks which should chill even our Remainers’ blood:

“Brussels has boasted they got “almost everything” they wanted with Theresa May’s Brexit deal and told member states of plans to lock the UK into EU courts and rules for years. Eurocrats have said that there were “limited” concessions over the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in the Withdrawal Agreement and the same governance model will be applied to an EU/UK trade arrangements. […] The new compromises which could tie the UK into EU regulations for years to come appeared in the diplomatic minutes of a presentation by Commission officials to address concerns Michel Barnier had given too much away to the UK in November’s deal. The minutes suggest the UK has signed up to provisions favourable to the EU that are “without precedent” in previous trade deals. […] The Commission says that what the UK has accepted in terms of the Level Playing Field has never been adopted in an FTA before.”

Do we think that Ms Merkel will go against her EU Commission? Really? The letter from Tusk and Juncker yesterday (here) suggest that there won’t be any changes.

The outstanding Mr Martin Howe QC analysed this in yesterday’s DT (here). Describing that and how nothing has changed – the EU’s remarks above illustrate this – and quoting at length from the General Attorney’s letter, he states:

“So when we consider the last-minute letters sent by the EU to Mrs May, we need to question whether they have a legal effect which changes the conclusions in the Attorney General’s advice to Cabinet. They do not.” (My bold)

His last paragraph ought to send even more chills down the spines of Remainers and those Tory MPs who still waver about voting for May’s WA because it’s ‘the only deal in town’, as her spin doctors have spun up and down the country and the corridors of Westminster:

“Nothing in these letters can affect that advice. Regrettably, our Prime Minister is not engaged in a process of negotiating changes to her deal in the UK’s interest. She is only seeking to change the perception of it without changing the substance.” (My bold)

Let’s now turn to the nitty-gritty: the numbers game and the shenanigans. First, the shenanigans to be expected, with another ‘bombshell’ according to The Express:

“In a shocking reveal, BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg told tonight’s Politics Live panel that MPs could in fact “vote on something different” as a result of eleventh hour backbencher amendments […]: “It may well be when we’re talking tomorrow night that in the end MPs have voted on something different. Because although it sounds completely crazy, amendments – changes – can be put forward by backbench MPs all the way up almost to the last minute.”

Indeed so – this is where the ‘Grieve&Cable Cabal’ will finally reveal their proposal (see yesterday’s Column), an amendment certain to get heard and voted on thanks to the oh-so-nonpartisan support of the Remainer in the Speaker’s Chair, Mr John Bercow. There’s precedence, after all … but, seeing Ms May’s take on his behaviour (here), one can assume that her aides and whips are doing all they can to alleviate this constitutional coup.

And finally – the Numbers Game! All MSM are at it, and depending on their stance – Remain, pro-May or pro WTO – the number by which May will be defeated (note well: nobody now assumes that she’ll get her deal through, after yesterday afternoon’s EU Letter) is fluid. A nice graph is in this article. While there are certain “No”-votes, e.g. the DUP and the SNP, all eyes are on the Tories. The best analysis can be found here at ConHome who have been updating their list.

This Numbers Game is important because of what will happen next: will Corbyn get his heart’s desire and a GE with all that entails for Brexit? Will May step down or will she drag on and on?

Proceedings start at 12.45pm, Ms May is expected to sum up and rally her troops at 6.45pm, voting on the amendments start at 7pm – and the final, “meaningful”, vote is expected at 9pm.

All bets are now off – nobody knows anything, and tomorrow the cards will be mixed anew.

One thing’s fersure: nothing will surpass today’s drama in the House of Commons. It will end in tears – for some. That’s my ‘prediction’. Enjoy.

 

The post YOUR DAILY BREXIT – 15th January 2019 appeared first on Independence Daily.

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Sunday 13th January 2019

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Sunday 13th January 2019

It’s D-Day minus 2 today, and this military terminology is appropriate: Tuesday is Decision Day. It’s difficult to think of a more significant date for our Nation, not even the Day of the Referendum, because we are not just observing a Government working to thwart the will of the people but MPs working to change how our democracy and Government works. And all for the sake of staying under the boot of Brussels! 

MPs and indeed the PM herself have been taking to the Sunday Papers to address us voters, or rather, to show us peasants what they think and therefore what we have to think. Obviously they assume that we, in good old forelock-tugging manner, will believe the PM and her ministers rather than her Brexit MPs.

Ms May writes in The Express that she is only doing what’s ‘right for our country’, that MPs should stop playing games. Amazingly, while she praises her WA she doesn’t mention the Backstop once, not once! Her final words surely take the proverbial:

“You have delivered your instructions. Now it is our turn to deliver for you. When you turned out to vote in the referendum, you did so because you wanted your voice to be heard. Some of you put your trust in the political process for the first time in decades. We cannot – and must not – let you down. Doing so would be a catastrophic and unforgivable breach of trust in our democracy. So my message to Parliament this weekend is simple: it is time to forget the games and do what is right for our country.”

No, Ms May – we didn’t vote for Leave because we wanted to be heard, we voted because we wanted to LEAVE! Your WA is not what we voted for. Your weasel words about ‘breach of trust in our democracy’ mask that this is exactly what you are doing. Your Remain MPs are working to dismantle our Constitution. One cannot help but wonder if they have your secret agreement!

Next into the fray is the current Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay writing in the DT, regurgitating the mantra that it’s May’s deal or nothing, using the phrase we’ve come across yesterday already, reported in our column. He writes that ‘losing the deal’ on Tuesday leads to ‘Brexit paralysis’. It’s the now well-known May ‘directive’ of “My Deal or No Brexit”. It is, with all due respect, pathetic.

In the DT, the former Brexit Minister Dominic Raab is being upbeat about a ‘No Deal Brexit’ while the former Brexit Secretary Stephen Baker (also in the DT and equally upbeat) makes a good point:

“Demoralisation through tales of doom to provoke despondency may be a key pillar of the strategy to reverse the biggest democratic decision in our history, but it will not work. The British are not a small and cowardly people. As the eurozone tips towards recession and more QE seems likely, we are not leaving Utopia, whatever its noble ideals.” (My bold)

It is fascinating how the Remain Establishment has been turning a determinedly blind eye to what is going on in the wonderful EU to which they want us chained forever. Not one of them takes the EU’s attitude into account – see here and here. It’s the usual ‘no-non-nein’ from Brussels, and never mind the vote in our Parliament on Tuesday.

The DT has an excellent Editorial today, telling MPs to vote against Ms May’s deal, to ‘kill it forever’. Their conclusion is important:

“Those saying that Mrs May’s deal is the only one on the table are fraudulently limiting this great country’s options to a Brexit so light it is barely Brexit at all (the Government’s current position) or a reversal of Brexit to keep us within the EU (the effective position of the Remainers, including the Tory rebels). Both options frustrate the will of the people, and MPs have to consider the political backlash. If an MP’s goal is to delay or stop Brexit, let them be open about it and face the consequences at the ballot box. If, however, an MP is genuinely committed to upholding the result of the referendum, then on Tuesday there is only one thing in all good conscience that they can do: vote down Mrs May’s deal.”

Indeed! But what will happen after the vote? Since Bercow’s decision to allow the Grieve amendment, it is plain that the Remainers have plunged us into a Constitutional crisis the likes of which we haven’t seen in living memory. The reports about behind-the scenes Remain machinations in Parliament are sickening. See e.g. The Express article:

The conspirators are thought to be planning to seize control of the House of Commons timetable, allowing non-Government MPs to table motions. The move could see laws passed preventing a hard-Brexit, or indeed any departure from the EU. […] They are reportedly planning to table an amendment giving motion proposed by backbench MPs priority over those put forward by the Government, in a move which would radically change how Parliament functions.” (my bold)

All that just to thwart the Brexit referendum vote! However, it’s also a crisis for the two main parties:

“The Tories are on the brink of a historic split, senior Conservatives have warned, as Brexiteers and Remainers both threatened to torpedo the Government if they did not get their way on Brexit. […] At the same time, The Sunday Telegraph understands that several senior ministers are agitating Mrs May to immediately open talks with Labour MPs about a compromise involving a permanent customs union if her deal is defeated by a large margin on Tuesday. […] Steve Baker, the deputy chairman of the European Research Group of Eurosceptics, warned […] “It’s difficult to see how at least some Conservative MPs would not withdraw confidence in the Government.” (source)

Labour however couldn’t give a toss, not about Brexit nor about respecting the vote of 17.4 million voters. For them, as pointed out yesterday, it’s about power:

“Talking up the prospect of a vote of no confidence if the deal was blocked, John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said: “It’s now here before us, we could have a socialist prime minister.” (source)

Underlining this is the report in the DM that Labour strategists are planning for a No-Confidence Vote on Wednesday with an ensuing GE, to get Corbyn into 10 Downing Street. The DUP, according to that report, will join forces with Labour unless May is replaced by a Brexit PM. But in regard to Brexit, Labour is as split as the Tory Party (see here).

We can conclude with confidence that Tuesday’s vote is not about Brexit, it is about power: Ms May wants to keep it, Labour wants to grasp it, and the Grieve Cabal wants to change how whichever Government works in future. He and his ilk think Parliament should govern, not the PM and Cabinet. Make no mistake: this won’t be limited to Brexit negotiations. This creates a precedent. No future PM will be safe.

If anything shows the utter disdain in which our elected representatives hold us it is this constitutional crisis manufactured simply to thwart our, the 17.4 millions, vote. This, the destruction of our system of governance, even more than their denying us Brexit, is what we must fight.

Get yer yellow vests now!

 

The post YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Sunday 13th January 2019 appeared first on Independence Daily.

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Friday 11th January 2019

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Friday 11th January 2019

Yesterday we learned of a most explosive letter. It was written by Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of MI6, and by Lord Charles Guthrie, former Head of the Armed Forces. It was sent to the chairmen of local Tory Party associations and subsequently got into the hands of SKY News.

They argue that Ms May’s deal would threaten our national security. You can see a legible copy of their letter here, with the inevitable refutation by Ms May’s spokesperson. Alternatively, see this tweet by Owen Paterson:

This is no idle threat by some veteran Brexiteers. Their argument cannot be refuted, show by news from Germany further down:

“The withdrawal agreement “threatens to change our national security policy by binding us into new sets of EU-controlled relationships. Buried in the agreement is the offer of a ‘new, deep and special relationship’ with the EU in defence, security and intelligence which cuts across the three fundamentals of our national security policy: membership of NATO, our close bilateral defence and intelligence relationship with the USA, and the Five Eyes intelligence alliance.The first duty of the state, above trade, is the security of its citizens. The Withdrawal Agreement abrogates this fundamental contract and would place control of aspects of our national security in foreign hands. Please ensure that your MP votes against this bad agreement and supports a sovereign Brexit on WTO rules, without payment of ransom.” (Source)

Sir Richard Dearlove writes in today’s DT to emphasise why Ms May’s WA is pernicious, with a dig at the current Brexit debate in the HoC and the MSM:

“At this late stage in the Brexit debate, it has become dominated by discussions of the economic risks of leaving the EU to trade on WTO terms, the behaviour of Westminster protesters and the antics of the Speaker. In the midst of this, we are losing sight of a far greater issue: the very real risks to our national security were Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement to be agreed by Parliament. Her deal – which the Government still maintains amounts to “taking back control” – would in reality erode our ability to take charge of our own affairs while putting at risk our place at the heart of Nato and the functioning of the vital Five Eyes information sharing alliance (made up of the UK, US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand).”

He explains that Ms May’s deal would

“ […] serve to cut across the three fundamentals of our national security policy: membership of Nato, our close bilateral defence and intelligence relationship with the US, and the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. Were the UK to participate in EU defence frameworks in the way Mrs May proposes, it would entail onerous conditions. These would likely include full adherence to EU defence policy, and the high likelihood of having to become a “rule-taker” on intelligence, space, financial contributions and the European Defence Agency. It is surely not acceptable for us to agree to such terms when, during all our time as an EU member, we have managed to avoid such obligations.”

It seems though that neither Ms May’s Government nor the Whitehall Remainer Mandarins nor indeed the Remain MPs are much fussed about this threat. They’d rather scare us into obedience by more and more ludicrous ‘Project Fear’ variations. Now see the latest evidence from none other than the German Minister for Defence, Ursula von der Leyen, who reportedly said:

Europe “needs to improve its ability to act on behalf of its own security” at a time of global uncertainty, adding major progress has been made towards realising a joint defence force. Like the development of the EU’s single market and free movement principle, developing a European army will take time, […] Europe’s army is already taking shape. Reforms over the past months and years have brought our armed forces closer together. We’re working quickly.” (Source)

She said further that “Germany and France are ‘driving forces’ in European defence and the two countries would assist each other in the event of an armed territorial attack”, also mentioning that 25 armies are working together:

“One such project, adopted in late November, involves France, Belgium and Cyprus developing a Beyond Line of Sight Land Battlefield missile systems family. Another project, adopted in March last year, involves Greece, Italy and Slovakia developing and building a prototype European Armoured Infantry Fighting Vehicle.” (see here).

Surely, given the terms of the WA, even the fiercest Remainer must recognise the implications!

One other aspect is worth keeping in mind when looking forward to the vote next week: Ms May is standing alone. Her cabinet colleagues prefer to jockey for positions to replace her. This report on a leaked letter from the No 10 Comms Director, lambasting certain cabinet Ministers, illustrates it nicely. An essay by Paul Goodman with the title ‘This rotting Cabinet’ emphasises Ms May’s dilemma, arguing that she doesn’t have the “Plan B” demanded by the Grieve Amendment (see yesterday’s column). He concludes:

“Cabinet members are united on one point, however.  All now hope that May’s deal passes Parliament, if not next week, then later.  And, collectively, they will carry on hoping – as authority drains away from them to Dominic Grieve, Steve Baker, and the Opposition, among whose numbers we of naturally include the Speaker.  This Cabinet is firewood.” (My emphasis)

That is the stark reality as we face the weekend before ‘The Vote’.

As for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour – pundits say he’s only interested in getting a GE, the now predicted loss of Ms May of the Brexit vote only being the means to achieving this (e.g. here). Sir John Redwood’s diary entry today on Corbyn and Labour is, as always, worth reading. But will Corbyn actually be able to lead the Nation regardless of Brexit – or will he be a puppet for his Labour colleagues? Hm … one is allowed to have one’s doubts.

Our Government and our Parliament have not just wasted our Nation’s time, they are even now, five minutes before midnight, more interested in pushing through their own personal, power-hungry agendas than having regard to the true dangers into which they have placed our Nation with their shenanigans.

 

The post YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Friday 11th January 2019 appeared first on Independence Daily.

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