Archive for the ‘Ms May’ Category

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Wednesday 20th February 2019

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Wednesday 20th February 2019

Predictably, the ‘ISIS Bride’ story is being skilfully utilised to take our attention away from Brexit. So is  that ‘Labour Split’, that entity “The Independent Group” (TIG) – (see yesterday’s article. This is influencing Brexit – but not in the way pundits thought: not by changing majority votes in the HoC but by providing a “Project Fear” for politicians in the Tory Party. That’s in contrast to the attitude of Corbyn who is, officially, just ‘disappointed’ (see here) and having lost another of his MP to the ‘TIG’ yesterday is apparently neither here nor there.

The Tories however are now in panic mode. It’s not that some Tories (the well-known remainers Anna Soubry and Nick Boles, for example) are now allegedly plotting their own “Leave”, nor that a former Minister, Ros Altman, now in the HoL, is ‘prepared to join’ the TIGs (here, paywalled), it’s about how Ms May and her Brexit handlers are using this panic mode to push through her WA, with Backstop.

It is all rather complicated, and with the exception of the Telegraph, none of the Remain papers have taken the trouble to analyse how this is going to play out. To start with, Ms May is going to see Monsieur “the Hand of God” Juncker later today. She is hoping to ‘secure a new deal’ which is the old deal, but with a little something added to the Backstop. That little something is a codicil worked out by the Attorney General, Mr Cox of the booming, mellifluous voice. That codicil aims to impose a time limit to the backstop but not removing it, as Brexiteers demand.

Let me quote from the paywalled article in the DT:

“Last night there was growing speculation that the deal could be signed off by European leaders at an EU-Arab summit in Egypt this weekend, which the Prime Minister is now expected to attend. The Telegraph understands that Mrs May has asked Mr Cox to write to MPs once a deal is secured informing them that he has changed his legal advice on the backstop. If a deal is secured this weekend the Prime Minister could bring forward a meaningful vote as soon as next week, Government sources told The Telegraph.” (my bold)

All us highly suspicious Brexiteers note immediately that this codicil is meant to pacify the ERG Tory MPs. We don’t even know yet if the EU will agree to it, never mind learning what will actually be in it. I am very much reminded of the ‘change in legal advice’ by the then Attorney General in Blair’s Labour government which gave Blair the green light for the Iraq war. It seems the Tory Remainers in the Cabinet think what worked for Blair will work for May …

There’s more, and while it’s speculative, it is obvious to me that this is the timetable the Remainers are planning to set in motion:

“Should Parliament back her deal it would avoid the threat of mass resignations by ministers who want to support a backbench bid to force the Prime Minister to delay Brexit in the event that a deal cannot be reached. Richard Harrington, a pro-European business minister, yesterday said that Parliament would “take control” if the Prime Minister failed to secure a deal. […] Downing Street had been braced for a backlash from Eurosceptics after Cabinet was told that plans for the “Malthouse compromise” will be delayed until after Brexit.” (my bold)

You’ll notice that this is not really about ‘avoiding an extension’ – that’s what ‘delay Brexit’ means in practice. It’s about avoiding the Cooper/Boles amendment. It’s about preventing Tory remainer MPs joining the TIGs.

It is not about securing us the Brexit we voted for!

Read carefully: the Malthouse Compromise, including scrapping the Backstop, would be delayed until after we’ve signed up to the WA, to become a EU vassal forever. I do wonder if the May Cabinet is full of intellectual pygmies – or if they think that, since we Brexiteers are all stupid, we won’t notice until it’s too late.

The ERG however are keeping their beady eyes on this abomination of a ‘deal’:

“Tory Eurosceptics still harbour significant concerns about Mr Cox’s Brexit compromise. Steve Baker, a leading member of the European Research Group of MPs, yesterday described it as a “Cox codpiece” just hours before meeting the Prime Minister to discuss her plans. On Mr Cox’s plans to write a letter to MPs, a senior Conservative source said: “The Prime Minister seems convinced that a letter from the Attorney General telling MPs that the backstop will be time limited will be enough to persuade them to vote for the withdrawal agreement. […] The ERG are hopping mad about it. They can’t believe the PM thinks this will be enough to win them over”. […] However privately Tory Eurosceptics have savaged plans for a legal text drawn up by Mr Cox. One compared the plans to “vomit” and said that Eurosceptics who support it are “weak. (my bold)

At least, according to the report I’ve quoted from, it seems to have dawned on the Cabinet that we would leave on WTO terms if there’s no deal while Mr Hammond again said that the only way out is an extension to Article 50. It seems to have escaped their attention though that the EU is the other player across the table here. The years of ‘negotiations’ should have taught them that the EU is not willing to give an inch. The ‘noises from the off’, inevitably from German and France, indicate this:

Michael Roth, the German minister for Europe, said: “There can be no limit to the backstop, there can’t be an automatic expiration of the backstop.” Nathalie Loiseau, the French Europe minister, added: “Time is pressing. The UK’s exit . . . will take place on March 29 because she hasn’t given any signals that there will be a delay.” (paywalled link)

While we have to wait until tonight to learn about the fate of the ‘Cox codpiece’, it’s obvious that Ms May and her Remainers will do anything and everything to achieve two goals: to get her disastrous WA through the HoC and to somehow prevent her Remainers from joining the Umunna TIG.

Brexit has now been reduced to a party-political playball.

That means: once more into the breach, dear friends – email your MPs!

 

The post YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Wednesday 20th February 2019 appeared first on Independence Daily.

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Monday 18th February 2019

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Monday 18th February 2019

Back ‘in harness’  – and after three days without internet (see below) I conclude that ‘nothing has changed’. Oh, there are some twitchings, but generally it’s been BAU (Business As Usual), with talking heads on telly, pro and con. Those talking heads are either the usual suspects or those from the third line of government or Party. They are now being made to defend the indefensible: Ms May’s WA and the Backstop (sounds like the title for a novel for teenies …). When Boris Johnson uses his DT column (paywalled) today to write about his ‘brush with a cheetah’ you know that Brexit arguments haven’t changed. It’s ‘All Silent on the Brexit Front’ …

The collective MSM, Remain, Leave – no matter, have noticed that the Brexit horse they and the politicians have been flogging is dead. The readers and listeners, a.k.a. The British Public, have had enough. We’ve kept telling them that we want a No Deal/WTO Brexit and that their twistings and turnings are disgusting us. We keep telling them to get on with it and that their well-spun phrases are missing the point. We don’t need the Boles/Coopers/Soubrys and the rest warbling about needing to get the ‘No Deal’ off the table – we’ve kept telling them that this No Deal is the table.

I will mention in passing that Tory MPs to be deselected are now talking about a “Purple Momentum” – i.e. it’s the bad former Kippers who joined the Tories last autumn who are the culprits, not them. As for Labour – I wonder what else needs to happen for the Remain MSM to stop painting Corbyn as the saviour. Later this morning, so the MSM rumour mill sez, there’ll be an announcement of Labour MPs leaving the Party. That’ll be interesting. There are though some Brexit ‘news’ I picked up …

It must be the best-kept secret in this country that the government is preparing for a No-Deal-Brexit, as are the EU and EU member states. Even tight-fisted Remainer Phil Hammond is reportedly preparing to inject cash into industries ‘affected by the No Deal Brexit’ (see here) and there are preparations in regard to tariffs for the No-Deal (see here, paywalled):

“Theresa May is braced for “howls of rage” as ministers finalise tariffs that would apply if there is no Brexit deal. Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, wants a move to zero tariffs in as many areas as possible, but other ministers are demanding protection for producers, including farmers, who would struggle to compete with cheaper imports from outside the EU.”

This shows the mindset of those Remain ministers: rather stay in the giant protection zone that is the EU than reduce costs-of-living for us, the people. Have this country fare better Out than In? Can’t have that! The EU wouldn’t like it …!

Ms May has been busy over the weekend. Firstly, she phoned EU member state leaders about her plans – not that we’ll know what she said, except it was ‘clear and concise’ … and probably ‘strong and stable’ as well – and then wrote a letter to all her MPs about it, including the list of whom all she phoned. You can read it here. I loved the ending: ‘history will judge us’, addressed to the new ‘baddies’, the ERG and Jacob Rees Mogg. Yes, insisting to honour both the referendum result and the 2017 party manifesto is an act of heinous rebellion, far worse than betraying Brexit.

Ms May will also undertake a whistle-stop tour of all EU member states, to ‘charm their leaders’ into supporting her (see here). That would be in preparation to get her unspeakable WA – should it pass – the necessary EU agreement. Not only has she apparently not learned from her predecessor’s ‘experience’, the timing is off: the HoC told her to renegotiate that ‘deal’ – and so far nothing has happened. Oh – she’ll get the Attorney General, Mr Cox of the booming but mellifluous voice, to get something done about the backstop. A ‘codicil’ …

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote another fine article about this in the DT Business section on Friday. It’s paywalled, so here is a lengthy quote:

“The leaks from Brussels have begun. Unnamed EU “diplomats and officials” have floated the subject of a temporary opt-out for Ireland in a no-deal Brexit. Dublin will not have to erect customs infrastructure or police the outer limits of the single market immediately. There will be a transition. Officials told Reuters that Ireland will ultimately face checks on its own exports to Europe or face being kicked out of the EU customs union if it refuses to put up a trade border against Northern Ireland in the event of a no-deal. […] But ultimately may be a long way off. There will be a strange hiatus. The derogation period circulating en coulisse in Brussels is about six months. In my experience such time-frames tend to be elastic. So think this through. Later this year or at some point in 2020 the Irish government will come under pressure to erect a border, which both Dublin and the EU insist would be a violation of the Good Friday Agreement.” (my bold).

This, dear friends, shows in exemplary fashion the EU’s mantra, ‘punish Britain for daring to Brexit’, at work, and never mind the legalities. I wonder how many other illegal (in EU Law) bombs are hidden in the WA … and why it is that our Government and Whitehall, never mind the HoC, are so resistant to take on board arguments we, the stupid, uninformed Leave-voters understand fine well.

I’ll conclude with the unavoidable Sir John Redwood who writes in his Diary today:

Being the UK’s Single Market Minister during an intense period of EU legislating when they said they were “completing”the single market turned me from a mild sceptic to a strong critic of the undemocratic approach of the EU. “

As always, go and read what Sir John Redwood has to say – it’s not long, and you can use his points in your emails to your MP.

The MSM may have decided that the fate of an ‘ISIS Bride’ is more relevant than Brexit, but you needn’t. Show your MPs that this is not a “Purple Momentum’, it’s an all-colour Brexiteer-Momentum.

 

~~~   *** ~~~   *** ~~~

My absence these past three days was on doctor’s orders, and I thank you all for your good wishes, on here or in private emails. I hope I can stay the course over the next six weeks. 

 

The post YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Monday 18th February 2019 appeared first on Independence Daily.

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Wednesday 13th February 2019

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Wednesday 13th February 2019

There are two main points of interest today, Day 44 to B-Day. One is Ms May’s announcement in the HoC yesterday, the other is … Olly Robbins. A minor item is that the Director of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has said that Brexit could restore faith in democracy and free trade – but a no-deal Brexit could ‘spark economic shock’ and should be avoided (here). That is certainly interesting, but before we open the English Prosecco, think: this is not a conversion of a Remainer and leading Project-Fear manufacturer to the joys of Brexit, it is a very clever step to prepare us for Ms May’s WA ‘deal’ which is BRINO.

That Ms May is doing her utmost to get this WA/BRINO deal can be seen by yesterday’s HoC performance.

Isabel Hardman, in her email Newsletter for the Spectator, writes:

“[…] we return once again to reassuring normality, with the Prime Minister delaying any kind of crunch point on Brexit for as long as possible. Yes, that’s right: May brought forward a statement in order to announce that she was pushing everything else back. It’s a neat summary of her premiership.” (my bold)

Ms Hardman explains that Ms May

“… will update MPs once again on 26 February, and if there is still no deal by then, she will allow the Commons to express its view on what should happen next through more non-binding votes.”

We are left with the impression that our PM’s “Plan B” is to get the HoC to demand an extension from Brussels, thus allowing her to keep her hands clean: it’ll not be her fault when the ‘orrible EU and the ‘orrible MPs fail to support her WA. She knows full well what an extension to Article 50 means: stay in the EU for longer, the ‘transition period’ to be dragged on and on – that’ll help Big Business which was unable to prepare for Brexit during nearly three years! – and on top of that she seems to hope that the EU will somehow accommodate her by keeping this extension period to the minimum and never mind the advice of Martin Howe QC (see yesterday’s column).

Ms Hardman concludes:

“This second update means May is delaying the Commons confrontation that was supposed to take place this Thursday. […] Yvette Cooper and Nick Boles have said they won’t bring this amendment back until the week of the 26th, and so the drama is starting to leach away from what was being billed as the ‘Valentine’s Day massacre’.”

However, this morning Jonathan Isaby in his email newsletter for BrexitCentral reports on a stunning development last night:

“A big row is brewing this morning over the motion that the Government has tabled for tomorrow’s full day of debate on Brexit in the Commons. With MPs having expected a neutral, anodyne (albeit amendable) motion to be tabled, instead the Government yesterday tabled a motion that endorses the approach to Brexit as agreed by the amendments passed by the Commons on 29th January. […] A senior ERG source tells me: “This is clearly not a neutral motion, as it effectively endorses the Spelman amendment – which ruled out No Deal – which is explicitly contrary to the Government’s own policy and which would completely destroy our leverage in the critical negotiations with the EU. If they supported this motion on Thursday, the Government would effectively be voting against their own expressed policy, as repeated in the House, including by the Prime Minister, on numerous occasions. This is utterly chaotic, bordering on farce. We told the Government very clearly last night that we will not support this motion and in fact we urged them, indeed pleaded with them at senior level, to withdraw it yesterday – but they took absolutely no notice. Frankly, we despair.” (my bold)

That looks as if there will be blood on the floor in tomorrow’s HoC Debate – it’s surely now worth watching!

Allow me to repeat myself: I don’t think that Ms May’s aim is to ‘run down the clock’. I believe that she’s delaying because she wants the HoC to vote for the extension, with no blame attached to her. My reason for this assessment is the extraordinary news of her “Chief adviser”, that is her Chief Brexit Negotiator Mr Olly Robbins having been overheard in a Brussels bar … telling ‘colleagues’ that we’re in ‘for a long delay’ unless Ms May’s WA (which he negotiated, don’t forget!) is voted through. For Mr Robbins, surprise surprise, the legal “No Deal” is not an option.

Here are some quotes:

“Oliver Robbins was overheard in a hotel bar by an ITV reporter telling colleagues that “in the end” Brussels will “probably just give us an extension” to Article 50. He suggested the Prime Minister will try to win support for her deal by warning MPs that if they fail to vote for it the delay to Brexit is likely to be a “long one”. His comments appear to rule out a no-deal Brexit, despite the Prime Minister’s repeated insistence that it remains on the table.” (DT, paywalled)

And this one:

Theresa May’s chief Brexit negotiator has contradicted the prime minister’s position on Brexit. Olly Robbins was overheard by an ITV News journalist in a Brussels hotel bar suggesting that MPs would be confronted next month with a “significant” delay to Brexit if they did not vote for the prime minister’s deal. This suggests that Mr Robbins believes that backbench moves led by Yvette Cooper and Nick Boles to stop a no-deal will succeed. In public Mrs May has vowed to try to prevent MPs from taking control and rejects the idea that Brexit will not happen on March 29. But Mr Robbins appeared to warn that any extension may last longer than expected. “Extension is possible but if they don’t vote for the deal then the extension is a long one . . . ”, he was heard to say. “The issue is whether Brussels is clear on the terms of extension. In the end they will probably just give us an extension.”(here (paywalled) (my bold)

I do not agree with Robert Peston’s analysis who seems to think it’s about a possible amendment to the Backstop. I think that Delay-May will delay until her BRINO gets the nod in the HoC because MPs are frightened of a No-Deal Brexit, with the ‘palatable’ alternative that she’ll get an extension and can thus delay Brexit to her and Olly Robbins and the EU’s hearts’ contents.

We’ll see if she can get away with this!

 

The post YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Wednesday 13th February 2019 appeared first on Independence Daily.

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Tuesday 12th February 2019

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Tuesday 12th February 2019

45 days and counting to B-Day. Will it ever arrive? When one scans the early- morning’s headlines one might be doubtful. The Extensionistas are not giving up, no matter the points made by such luminaries as Martin Howe QC – more on that below, although I doubt Extensionistas actually read such advice. Nor is M Barnier giving up. He met ‘our Brexit Minister’ Steve Barclay last night – another fine dinner! – but, as always, it’s ‘Non’:

“Speaking in advance of talks with Steve Barclay, the Brexit secretary, Michel Barnier again said that reopening the withdrawal agreement to solve the Irish border question was impossible. He suggested, though, that if Theresa May moved closer to Labour’s position on close post-Brexit alignment with the EU then further talks could take place. Sabine Weyand, his deputy, went further, saying that Jeremy Corbyn’s letter to Mrs May had triggered an interesting debate and that his proposals deserved to be discussed.” (paywalled link)

Of course the EU likes Mr Corbyn’s EU-friendly proposal – how could it be otherwise? You need more evidence for EU intransigence?  Here it is (same paywalled source):

“I will evaluate the interest from the UK side for possible changes to the political declaration, […] As to clarity, that has to come from London. It’s in London where they have to find the ways and means to build a positive majority between the two negative majorities that exist today in the House of Commons.” He added: “Maybe there’s a way to explain better, to have more ambition, to put into perspective the content of the accord, and the backstop.” However, he categorically ruled out reopening the withdrawal agreement. The talks last night between Mr Barnier and Mr Barclay also included Ms Weyand and Olly Robbins, Mrs May’s chief Brexit negotiator.” (my bold)

Here they are again – the three chief Brexit-wreckers. I don’t count Mr Barclay, he has no powers, he’s ‘new’ and is nothing but a fig leaf for Ms May.

Some Tories criticised Ms May’s approach to Labour. The Times (paywalled) reports that:

“Senior Conservative Brexiteers warned Theresa May yesterday that she must never negotiate with Labour on the party’s proposal for Britain to remain in a customs union with the European Union.”

There’s more (same link):

“Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, described Labour’s plan as a dangerous delusion and warned that it was “not workable”, […] Dr Fox said Labour’s claims that it would be able to influence EU trade policy showed that it did not understand how the bloc’s policy worked. […] Downing Street attempted to defuse the row by insisting that remaining in a customs union was not up for negotiation. A spokesman for Mrs May said the government has been “absolutely clear” it was not considering a customs proposal.”(my bold)

Now you know why Ms “EU” Weyand likes Mr Corbyn’s proposal!

Whenever Ms May or Downing Street emphasises that they are ‘absolutely clear’ about something, alarm bells ought to ring! See for example James Delingpole’s article (here) referring again to Steve Baker’s report at the EU Special Committee last month. Should you have missed it, read that article! How many times did Ms May tell us that she was and is absolutely, definitely, totally clear that she would ‘deliver Brexit’? That’s total, absolute obfuscation, because from the beginning it’s now ‘absolutely clear’ that she wasn’t going to. James Delingpole writes:

“Despite Brexit, Mrs May is absolutely set on keeping  Britain’s trading relationship with the world the same as it was while Britain was a member of the European Union. No longer, I think, can there be any doubt that the failure of the Brexit negotiations has nothing to do with Brexiteer intransigence and everything to do with Mrs May and the Remainer Deep State.”

There’s nothing to add to that – especially not when one reads about the shambles she’s now making regarding the parliamentary debates. First, she was going to present her plans to Parliament this week, for debate on Thursday. Then she decided she needed more time and postponed it to the end of this month. Now she will give some statement today (!) so the MPs can talk about it later … :

“The prime minister is due to make a Commons statement on the latest developments in the Brexit negotiations today, a day earlier than expected. She is set to tell MPs that, as no deal has been struck, parliament will be given a further opportunity to debate and vote on Brexit at the end of the month.” (paywalled link)

Remainer Ministers are ‘furious’ and are in ‘secret talks’ to make her give backbenchers more time to debate (here) and, since “The Talks” with the EU haven’t progressed, will demand an Extension to Article 50. Fabled “EU sources” provide more material (here), saying that Ms May with her dithering has ‘just lost the month of February’, that she is insanely pushing negotiations to the wire …

Will the Extensionistas now achieve their goal? Writing for BrexitCentral, Martin Howe QC explains why such extension would be a terrible idea:

“By asking for a favour when up against the clock, the UK would once again put itself in a very weak negotiating position, where it would be subject to being blackmailed for further concessions. It would also let the EU off the hook and remove the negotiation pressure on the EU to revise the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement.”

I urge you to read the whole article, not least because he explains what such extension would entail: our participation in the forthcoming EU Parliamentary elections, and that would be a truly terrible idea – for the EU! The DT (paywalled) reports:

“Eurosceptic parties are on course to take a third of seats in May’s European Parliament elections and could form alliances to destroy the EU from within, new research has claimed. Anti-establishment parties from across the EU could band together to block or curb EU legislation if they win 33 percent of the 751 seats, the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank warned in a report published on Monday. […] The parties could even frustrate the appointment of the new European Commission president after Jean-Claude Juncker steps down after the elections or stop the EU Budget being approved.”

That’s what a certain Mr Soros is also afraid of – see this report in the DM – and we all know by now what Mr Soros will do when he sees his pet ‘projects’ in danger …

I think it’s unwise to pin our hopes on forces outside our control, such as EU elections. We ourselves must fight, here and now, for our Clean Brexit. And for us, unlike for the EU and Parliament, February is not lost! More emails to be sent to your MPs – get typing!

 

The post YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Tuesday 12th February 2019 appeared first on Independence Daily.

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Monday 11th February 2019

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Monday 11th February 2019

46 days until B-Day – that’s Brexit Day – and today the confusion is as great as ever. Everyone I spoke to over the weekend is united: there’s no way to predict how March 29th will play out. Even Boris Johnson (DT, paywalled) writes not about Brexit today but about Twitter’s crusade against ‘transphobes’ rather than knife crime. Our ‘betters’ look to be as clueless as we are.

The one issue which has attracted the MSM’s attention is that Ms May will talk to Corbyn again (here, here, and paywalled here and here). What the papers are agreed on is that the talk will be about a ‘Soft Brexit’ – along the lines of Corbyn’s proposals, the main points of which were to stay in some sort of customs union and accommodating some sort of common market access.

The Times writes:

“Theresa May opened the door last night to a soft Brexit by engaging with Jeremy Corbyn on a customs union in a move that puts her at risk of losing the support of members of her cabinet. In a letter to the Labour leader, the prime minister suggested that their parties hold further talks on the issue of a permanent customs union in an attempt to win support from Labour MPs for her Brexit plan.”,

while the DT has this to say:

“Theresa May has agreed to hold fresh talks with Jeremy Corbyn’s over his plans for a soft Brexit that would keep Britain tied to the Single Market after Brexit and locked in a customs union with the EU. In a letter to the Labour leader, the Prime Minister did not rule out Mr Corbyn’s demand for a “permanent” customs union although she said it would present a “negotiating challenge”. She also agreed to talks on Mr Corbyn’s call for “close alignment” with the Single Market, as well as committing to asking Parliament if it wishes to follow EU rules on workers’ rights and environment standards​.​The letter alarmed Tory Eurosceptics, who fear the Prime Minister ​could ultimately change tack and back keeping Britain in a Customs Union with the EU. Jacob Rees-Mogg, a senior Eurosceptic Tory MP, said: “As the 2017 Conservative manifesto promised to leave the Customs Union it would be more consistent for the Prime Minister simply to rule one out.”​

The DT reports further:

“She said the “fundamental negotiating challenge” is that Mr Corbyn’s proposal will require the UK to stay in the Single Market and accept free movement,​ a ​breach of Labour’s own manifesto. ​​However in a move that surprised Tory MPs and some ministers, she did not explicitly rule out keeping the UK in a customs union with the EU. ​Mrs May also said she wanted discussions between Tory and Labour teams to consider “alternative arrangements” to the Irish backstop and said cross-party support for security co-operation sends a “powerful signal” to Brussels.”

​That is the only time the Backstop gets mentioned today! And obviously, her much-vaunted ‘alternative arrangements’ are still non-existent … But note that Ms May has apparently not ruled out staying in a Customs Union – and we all know, or ought to by now, what that means: staying IN, and under the boot of the ECJ.

Of course, given the disarray the Labour Party is in at the moment, with some Labour MPs demanding a 2nd Referendum but not the Corbyn Plan, I can’t help but think that this is yet another indication of Ms May being ‘handled’ by her Remain civil servants: she ‘performs’ what looks like ‘political consultations’ while the real work is done by them ‘en coulisse’, leading one to the question if there’s now a split in Whitehall as well. See for example this report, by the famed “Brussels sources”:

“Secret talks have begun between the UK and EU to prepare the way for a managed no-deal Brexit, sources in Brussels have claimed. It is also understood that the World Trade Organisation has opened the door to a route for the EU and UK to continue trading on an interim basis in the event of no deal being reached by March 29. The revelations come as leading pro-Brexit lawyers have warned that extending Article 50 would be a “blackmailer’s charter” for the EU. Senior figures in Brussels have said that officials at UK Rep – the British embassy in Brussels – have been “putting out feelers” for extending Article 50, but “only to deliver a managed no-deal”.(my bold)

Is this yet another hint that B-Day will be our No-Deal Brexit? Mind you, the German car industry is up in arms about that because it would-could-might mean huge job losses for them (see here) – and that at a time when world recession looms and when the EU economy is sliding into recession as well. It’s nothing to do with Brexit, and even the Remainers haven’t dared to claim that – yet! Italy seems to have seen the writing on the wall and is working towards alleviating a no-deal Brexit, as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in the (paywalled) DT:

“Italy is drawing up emergency plans to safeguard financial stability and keep trade with the UK flowing even if there is a no-deal Brexit, if necessary through a bilateral deal between Rome and London.”

Some countries are apparently taking the No-Deal-Brexit outcome so seriously that they are preparing for it, and why not if even the EU is doing it! Keeping the looming world recession in mind, AEP concludes with this warning:

“A developed economy with full sovereign policy instruments in such a downturn would typically launch a fiscal stimulus of ‘shovel-ready’ infrastructure and investment projects worth 1pc to 2pc of GDP. It would restart quantitative easing. It would engineer a sharp slide in the currency. All three together would right the ship. Italy can do none of these things within the constraints of the euro. It is essentially defenceless.”

Reading between the lines: this is exactly what we’d have to face up to if we get BRINO! I simply do not understand why Remainers are incapable of grasping that simple truth. But I forget – for them, especially the young’uns whose ‘future is wrecked’ when we leave, the economy is only about roaming charges …

I close yet again with a quote from the inevitable Sir John Redwood, whose Diary entry today is titled “Brexit End Game”. Do read it – you won’t find a better dissection of the current parliamentary confusion. If you don’t have the time, here’s his conclusion:

“Worse still is why would the UK want delay? It prolongs business uncertainty. It makes the UK look feeble and indecisive. It delays new trade deals and stops us spending the money saved on exit. It fails to take back control of our laws, our money and our borders. I do not see how there are things we can get the EU to agree in April and May that we cannot get them to agree in February and March against the pressure of the deadline of our departure. The public want government and Parliament to just get on with it. That is also the best negotiating strategy.I still want a managed WTO exit with a UK offer of a free trade agreement which could avoid tariffs and other new barriers to our EU trade.” (my bold)

Indeed, Sir John – so do we all!

It’s a scandal that he is still being disregarded, his expertise not used by Ms May. You draw your own conclusions as to why that is …

 

The post YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Monday 11th February 2019 appeared first on Independence Daily.

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Saturday 9th February 2019

YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Saturday 9th February 2019

 

March 29th is getting closer and closer and where there ought to be clarity, there’s more confusion, expertly manufactured by vested Remain interests. Forgive me, but to me it looks as if we’re inhabiting a political landscape that is more akin to Alice-in-Wonderland than reality.

Also, since it’s the weekend, some more Top Guns had to be wheeled out to give their opinions. In today’s Times these are Sir John Major and the former head of the civil service, Lord O’Donnell. In today’s (paywalled) DT, Lord Trimble writes about his judicial intervention on the Backstop. His article deserves a full expose and I hope to do so later.

Today we also read that a couple of cats have been let out of their respective bags in an instant of highly ironic timing. The first big cat is that the new Brexit Party has been formally recognised by the Electoral Commission. It’s all over the news, and Nigel Farage has endorsed it. He writes in the (paywalled) DT:

“The party was founded with my full support and with the intention of fighting the European elections on May 23 if Brexit has not been delivered by then. I have made it clear many times that I will not stand by and do nothing if the referendum result is betrayed, so should this election need to be contested, I will stand as a candidate for the Brexit Party and I will give it my all.”

The other cat that has leapt out of the bag is related to the extension to Article 50.  It’s the aim of that group of Labour and Tory MPs who posted their ‘Cooper Bill’ in the HoC last month as amendment to Ms May’s WA deal. It got defeated at that time, but they are trying it on again (see e.g. here). While we’ve heard noises from ”Cabinet sources” that this new Cooper Bill will have ‘no chance’, I do wonder. Anything is possible, after all. So today, thanks to The Times (paywalled) we learn how this Bill is supposed to work:

“The alliance, led by Yvette Cooper, the Labour chairwoman of the home affairs select committee, and Nick Boles, the former Tory minister, is expected to ask MPs to vote to put parliament in charge for three days at the end of this month. That would give Mrs May two weeks to get her deal through the Commons before MPs forced her to delay Brexit by asking the European Union for an extension to Article 50. Under parliamentary rules only the government can propose the legislation needed to extend Article 50. The Cooper amendment would suspend those rules for three days. […] Another cabinet minister agreed that it was not yet “high noon”. That will arrive on February 26, 27 and 28 if the cross-party amendment is passed. Pro-EU ministers believe that Mrs May is acutely aware that she will need to ask for an extension regardless of whether a deal passes before March 29 but wants parliament to force it on her so that she cannot be blamed. “She knows it will need us to resign to push for the extension she needs but will claim she opposes,” one minister said.” (my bold)

Please pick up your jaws from the floor now! Yes, it’s ‘Alice in Wonderland’ time. Our PM is not leading, she is begging others – Juncker, Tusk, Barnier and now Cooper, Boles and other MPs and her Remain ministers – to please get her BRINO through, but in such a way that she looks good, principled and blameless: “they made me do it”. Strong leadership, that!

But might the Cooper-Cat and all who support her think again, now that the Farage-Cat is out? After all, as we saw yesterday, the EU doesn’t want Nigel back in the EU Parliament at any cost …

The Article-50-Extensionistas have received support fire from two Big Guns who both bewail the situation they helped to create. That Sir John Major (The Times, paywalled) bemoans Brexit in general and the current situation in particular is not exactly news, but hey – he was PM so we surely must believe him! The other item is more interesting. The Times (paywalled) writes:

“In an unusually direct intervention, Lord O’Donnell criticised the prime minister for failing to tie down terms of Britain’s future relationship with the bloc at the end of the transition period. He warned that MPs were being asked to take a “meaningless” vote with no idea how it will impact on the UK’s “economy, society and government”. Lord O’Donnell, who served as cabinet secretary under Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron, added that it would be “irresponsible for any government to even contemplate embarking on such a perilous journey without giving us a clearer idea of the eventual destination”. (my bold)

It may be an ‘unusual’ intervention because it’s made public – but anyone who thinks this former Head of the Civil Service hasn’t spoken to a certain Mr Olly Robbins “en coulisse” (I nicked that expression from Ambrose Evans-PrItchard’s article) during the past months probably pulls up their pants using pliers …

So those are the “Brexit News”. For the rest, we need to look at the reports on Ms May’s meeting the Irish PM, Mr Varadkar, over dinner in Dublin (here, here and here). We were told there would be no Brexit ‘negotiations’ over dinner, but now we read that they did talk about it. Of course they did – just look at who accompanied Ms May:

“The Prime Minister was having dinner on Friday night with Leo Varadkar, the Irish Prime Minister, in an attempt to break the deadlock in negotiations. They were joined for the private dinner at official state guesthouse Farmleigh House by the UK’s Brexit negotiator Olly Robbins and her chief of staff Gavin Barwell.” (my bold)

Of course one takes one’s chief Brexit negotiator and one’s hard-core Remain chief-of-staff to a dinner where one won’t talk about Brexit and Backstops, of course one does! Only in our Alice-in-Wonderland political landscape …

For the required dose of sanity on Backstop and Ireland, just read today’s Diary entry by the inevitable Sir John Redwood. I wish he were our PM.

The post YOUR DAILY BREXIT – Saturday 9th February 2019 appeared first on Independence Daily.

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR – SATURDAY 9TH FEBRUARY 2019

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR – SATURDAY 9TH FEBRUARY 2019

Sir,

I propose to send this directly to the PM. copied to the local MP. Yes I know that she has wax in her ears, but it is worth a try:

“Dear Mrs May

You will have seen reviews of FCO 30/1048 predicting that it would take 30 years for the British people to wake up to the real nature of the European project

Indeed EU rulers have verified many times that their aim to bring an end to the era of the nation state. But many in Westminster have done little to prevent Parliament from being emasculated. Quite the opposite in some cases.

Now you know that agreements such as NAFTA, NATO and the WTO, all have escape clauses, whereas your Withdrawal Agreement does not. You should not be asking Parliament to sign up to such a document of inequity.

While the transition period was supposed to end in 2020, you seem to envisage an extension to 2022, while Art. 132 says that it can be extended up to ‘31-12-20XX’.

That suggests that you are going to be complicit in the continued emasculation of Parliament leaving the U.K. enslaved to the E.U. rulebook, but please let us know your true intentions.

If you can break the chains which have shackled us increasingly to the emerging E.U. superstate, then you will step on to a higher pedestal, with other great leaders.

But if you leave us subservient to the will of unelected E.U. rulers, then you will be no better than those who have passively or actively accepted our ratcheting towards Fiscal, Political and Military Union.

To recap. 544 (84%) MPs voted to hold a referendum and 408 (63%) constituencies voted to leave the E.U. They did not expect to be left half in/half out of the E.U. any more than the 498 (77%) MPs who voted to invoke Article 50.

Parliament delegated a decision to the people and it must now deliver. But your WAB is not fit for that purpose. Only a departure on WTO terms will deli de on your promises and you have no mandate for anything else.

So please abandon your flawed WAB and release us finally from the straightjacket which has held us in thrall to the emerging E.U. superstate, these long 45 years.

Please do not go down in history as yet another PM who has connived to leave us enslaved to the E.U. Politburo. Do not procrastinate further but abandon your WAB and lead us to freedom on WTO terms on 29th March.

Thank you for taking the time to read this letter.

YS”

Thanks for publishing it,

Respectfully, Roger Arthur

 

—   OOO —

 

Sir,

Prominent Remain-leaning Government ministers like Philip Hammond would prefer a Brussels-imposed exit ‘deal’ tying us to the EU – including a commitment to European defence and security arrangements without any political say – possibly forever, rather than leaving on WTO terms and reaping the benefits of once again being autonomous actors on the world stage.

Warnings about a ‘disorderly, no-deal Brexit’ are mainly coming from those who are terrified of any economic measure that has not been planned; perhaps they should take a look at Venezuela, whose ‘planned economy’ is looking a little disorderly now.

Respectfully, Ann Farmer

 

—   OOO —

 

Sir,

A remainer suggested that E.U. growth was not really in decline, it is just lagging behind emerging economies. My response:

Being outside of the Eurozone the U.K. has expanded at a faster rate than countries which are in it. That has nothing to do with developing economies. To recap:

Since the advent of the Eurozone in 1999 the German economy has grown by around 32% while that of the UK has grown by 43%. Over the same period US, Canadian and Swiss growth rates have risen by 49%, 53% and 46% respectively.

Eurozone % unemployment has remained stubbornly at around twice the UK’s and the EU has been the least successful trade area in the world for many years, apart from Antarctica. The IMF predicts that 90% of global growth will come from outside of the EU over the next two decades, with EU’s contribution falling to 10%. How long will this founder(ing) member stay in the Eurozone do you think? There is clearly no case to remain alongside the E.U. Titanic, for any longer than we have to.

Respectfully, Mr King

 

The post LETTERS TO THE EDITOR – SATURDAY 9TH FEBRUARY 2019 appeared first on Independence Daily.

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